Mondiale koffiestorm: futuresprijzen zijn in mei met 15% gestegen
In de nasleep van de nieuwe uitbraak is de voedingsmiddelen- en drankenindustrie over de hele wereld getroffen. Het fenomeen van het schenken van melk, het rollen van groenten en het snijden van bloemen is zowel verrassend als betreurenswaardig. Maar één soort voedsel is een onverwachte winnaar.
Coffee -- at a time of global isolation and extended home office hours, demand is bucking the trend and even coffee drinkers are stockpiling.
Demand rose as consumers rushed to grab a coffee. Arabica coffee on the ICE futures exchange has surged 20 percent to $1.20 a pound since the start of Fe+bruary, making it one of the world's best-performing commodities.
Het Coffee C-contract, de benchmark voor hoogwaardige Arabica-koffie, schommelt momenteel rond de $117.
Volgens IRI, een marktonderzoeker uit Chicago, stegen de kosten voor koffie met 34,6 procent in Frankrijk en met 29,5 procent in Italië vergeleken met dezelfde periode vorig jaar.
According to Google Trends, "Dalgona coffee" has become the most searched coffee type in the world, surpassing all other coffee records. Global searches rose 1,800% in mid-march and another 1,700% in mid-April.
Most experts attribute the rise in coffee prices to a "short-term panic buying effect" at supermarkets.
But with most shoppers already backlogged, coffee demand is likely to ease in the coming weeks. Philip Searle, a senior coffee trader in PRWakefield, said: "at the supermarket, everyone was buying it in bulk and it was a peak but it's back to normal now."
Philip Searle added: "The rise in demand has lasted only a month and it is surprising whether it will continue."
ICO also released a report last week on how the new outbreak will affect the global coffee industry. Despite the industry's overall steady growth, coffee prices have continued to fall since 2016, dropping 30 percent from the average price over the past decade, as the report shows.
And an increase in coffee consumption at home would offset a drop in spending by outside retailers. "Lower household incomes could lead to less demand for coffee. In addition, price-sensitive consumers may replace high-value coffees with lower-value blends or brands."
Analisten waarschuwen dat de vraag naar de bonen later dit jaar kan dalen als gevolg van de wereldwijde recessie.
Jose dorster Sette, executive director of the international coffee organization, warned Markets Insider on Wednesday: "our model predicts a 1% drop in GDP will lead to a 0.95% drop in coffee consumption."